BASEBALL
I was reading an interesting discussion about whether the Tigers do poorly at scoring runners who reach third base with less than two outs. It turns out last year that they were one of the worst teams at this (48% of Tiger runners scored while the American League average was 52%.) But, the Tigers were not a good hitting team. So I thought that since this was a rate statistic maybe just team that hit well scored theses runners well. In other words, who cares how the runner got to third. The good hitting teams are most likely to drive in the runner.
I first compared OPS and 3B <2 from last year.
| TEAM | 2009 OPS | 2009 3B, <2 |
| SEA |
0.716 |
47% |
| KC |
0.724 |
50% |
| OAK |
0.726 |
51% |
| CHA |
0.74 |
49% |
| DET |
0.747 |
48% |
| BAL |
0.747 |
57% |
| CLE |
0.756 |
51% |
| TEX |
0.764 |
50% |
| TOR |
0.773 |
52% |
| MIN |
0.774 |
56% |
| TAM |
0.782 |
51% |
| LAA |
0.792 |
55% |
| BOS |
0.806 |
53% |
| NYA |
0.829 |
54% |
If you fit a trend line to this date you see an r2 coefficient of 0.30. In other words OPS explains about 30% of scoring these runners.
With some more thought I figured that power is not needed to score a runner from third so maybe batting average is the key.
| TEAM | 2009 BA | 2009 3B, <2 |
| SEA |
0.258 |
47% |
| CHA |
0.258 |
49% |
| KC |
0.259 |
50% |
| DET |
0.260 |
48% |
| TEX |
0.260 |
50% |
| OAK |
0.262 |
51% |
| TAM |
0.263 |
51% |
| CLE |
0.264 |
51% |
| TOR |
0.266 |
52% |
| BAL |
0.268 |
57% |
| BOS |
0.270 |
53% |
| MIN |
0.274 |
56% |
| NYA |
0.283 |
54% |
| LAA |
0.285 |
55% |
When this data is fit with a line r2 = 0.59. Batting average does explain most of the scoring of runners from third with less than two outs.
I didn’t think OBP would work better because not all walks immediately score a runner from third. In fact the data only explains 41% of scoring runners on third with less than two outs.
| TEAM | 2009 OBP | 2009 3B, <2 |
| SEA |
0.314 |
47% |
| KC |
0.318 |
50% |
| TEX |
0.320 |
50% |
| OAK |
0.328 |
51% |
| CHA |
0.329 |
49% |
| DET |
0.331 |
48% |
| BAL |
0.332 |
57% |
| TOR |
0.333 |
52% |
| CLE |
0.339 |
51% |
| TAM |
0.343 |
51% |
| MIN |
0.345 |
56% |
| LAA |
0.350 |
55% |
| BOS |
0.352 |
53% |
| NYA |
0.362 |
54% |
So, it is not surprising the Tigers stranded runners on third with a higher rate. They had a lower batting average than most teams. A follow up question is if you include SO% (strike out rate) and batting average how well could you predict 3B <2? I have neither the statistics experience or software to answer that.
Baseball and Not Baseball 