Chapter 18 and 19 in Thinking, Fast and Slow


Chapter 18 is called Taming Intuitive Predictions.  Kahneman revisited the idea from earlier in the book that people prefer to use intensity matching instead of statistics.  For instance an early reader- absent other information- is projected to have a high GPA.  In reality predictions have the highest validity if they lie between an average result and a prediction based on intensity matching.  The trick is to find the correct weights to assign each part of the prediction.

Chapter 19 is called The Illusion of Understanding.  This chapter focused mostly on business.  It made the point that business success is largely based on luck.  Having a great philosophy or CEO will definitely increase a the chance of success, but not by as much as most people think.  The people who write the business books are the ones who have succeeded.  There is outcome bias at play in business best sellers and that is why their ideas might not transfer.

There may be the same outcome bias in literature about developmental mathematics, so I should be aware of this as I help decide how to improve student success at my College.

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