NOT BASEBALL

Chapter 24 is titled The Engine of Capitalism. Business leaders are optimists. As with most people they feel their skills are above average.  They have a tendency to ignore external factors like competition.  They are overconfident in the success of a typical enterprise.

To balance this Kahneman suggests a premortem on new ideas.  Ask participants in a group considering a new project to pretend it were one year later and the idea had failed.  Each participant should write what went wrong over the course of that year.  The writings offer realistic concerns and suggest pitfalls to avoid.