No-hitters (The Harball Times)


Sal Baxamusa at The Hardball Times has found that the probability of first hits in a game is about what you would expect when you use the formula:

PROB = (AVG)*(1-AVG)N-1 where N is the out before which the hit happens and AVG is a teams composite average.  The hitters do a little better than expected the third time they see a pitcher with a no-hitter in a game. 

The fact that it so closely follows the expected probability could lead to some fun questions in finite math class.

When should you start paying to no-hitter to get a 50-50 chance of seeing a no-hit finish?

How many games a season will a team typically not have a hit until the 4th?  5th?  6th?

What is the probability of a game being a no-hitter?  How many no-hitters would you expect in a typical MLB season?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s