The Win Probability Inquirer at Hardball Times


Ryan Raburn caught a foul ball with the bases loaded today.  A run tagged and scored.  This ball was close to the foul line so he had to catch it.  Should he have caught it if he knew it was foul?  Yes.  If the home team is behind catch it.

This shows a possible tie scenario when you’d let it drop.  This is great in that you can run the comparison right there.  You can also adjust somewhat for personnel.  Raise the run environment if Cabrera and Martinez are due up.  Drop the run environment if Inge and Avila have to face a top notch closer in the ninth.

I will probably use the Win Probability Inquirer frequently.

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